China´s economic growth is forecast to slow down to 6% while downside risks have increased and business insolvencies will increase further in 2019
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The adoption of a pension reform that provides savings of at least 600-700 billion reais is key to keep public debt sustainable and to sustain invertors’ confidence in the long-term.
The UK sales outlook for consumer durables in 2019 is more subdued as household finances are strained and private consumption growth is decreasing.
Higher costs of raw materials and import tariffs have increased operational costs and reduced overall profitability in the household appliances segment.
Insolvencies are expected to level off or to increase slightly in 2019, in line with the forecast of a modest 2% increase in Dutch business failures.
Many smaller retailers lack the flexibility and financial means to adapt business models to changing consumer habits, and the credit risk remains elevated.
Retailers´ margins are expected to decrease further due to the fierce competitive market environment in most segments and increased price transparency.
Profit margins of retailers in the online segment to increase slightly in 2019, while brick-and-mortar retailers face continued margin pressure.
The number of payment delays and protracted defaults is expected to remain high in 2019, due to ongoing cash flow problems and restricted access to loans.
Even larger consumer durables retailers could face troubles due to increased financial exposure after acquisitions and the difficult economic environment.
Good payment behaviour in the household appliances, furniture and consumer electronics segments over the past two years, and no major changes are expected.