Survey respondents in China expect trade credit risk to increase over the coming months. Find out more about their business challenges going forward.
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Cyprus's economy is on solid ground but crisis legacies persist.
Ireland’s highly open economy is cooling off and demand in export markets is set to remain weak while the domestic economy faces increasing capacity constraints and lower government spending.
Economic growth in Spain is expected to be strong this year (2.3%), although slightly lower than last year.
In 2019, another 4% increase is expected in Swiss insolvencies.
Another 3% increase in insolvencies, following those recorded in the past couple of years, is expected this year in Sweden.
Economic growth in Denmark is forecast to increase to 2% this year.
Economic growth in Belgium is expected to slowdown to 1.2% this year and in 2020.
Economic growth in Greece is projected to reach approximately the level of 2% in 2019 and 2020.
In France, the number of insolvencies is forecast to increase 3% this year due to decelerating economic activity.
The UK is facing the highest increase in insolvencies in 2019 and 2020 in Western Europe.
In Italy, business insolvencies are expected to increase in 2019, by about 4%. This is due to economic stagnation, increased political uncertainty and tighter credit conditions.
Economic growth in Germany is expected to cool to 0.6% in 2019 down from 1.6% one year ago.
GDP growth in the Netherlands is expected to slow to 1.7% in 2019. After several years of sharp decreases in insolvencies, this year is likely to mark a turning point.
As economic growth decelerates, and the manufacturing sector struggles amid lower global trade, Western Europe expects to close the year with a 2.7% increase in insolvencies.
Insolvencies are rising, and structural weaknesses and the negative impact of sanctions on productivity and investment weigh on the economic expansion.
Due to the recent economic downturn the credit risk situation of some major industries has deteriorated, and insolvencies are expected to increase.
Worries over the impact of adverse external factors like US import tariffs and the Brexit decision on Polish export and investment growth remain.
In 2020 household consumption is expected to accelerate, sustained by further decreasing unemployment, low inflation, and a minimum wage increase.
The economy is highly integrated into international value chains, making it vulnerable to major foreign trade losses, especially in the automotive sector.
The forint remains vulnerable to international investors’ sentiment due to the elevated external and public debt levels and institutional issues.
As the economy is reliant on automotive-related exports to the Eurozone, especially to Germany, it is vulnerable to adverse developments in the industry.
The currency is subject to some volatility, and the country is vulnerable to capital outflows should there be adverse internal or external developments.
Political instability remains an issue for the long-term economic growth prospects, while corruption and red tape still hamper the business environment.
Despite a modest economic rebound the business performance and credit risk situation of several industries remains strained, especially in Dubai.
Beside deterioration of payment behaviour in the private sector, the number of payment delays in larger projects dependent on government funding is still high.
In 2019 and 2020 growth is expected to exceed 5%, supported by exchange rate liberalization, interest rate normalisation and increasing tourist arrivals.
The economy is currently forecast to expand by about 3.5% in 2020, however, this depends on decent performance in agriculture, tourism, and exports.
Slow reform progress and social tensions weigh on the medium-term outlook, while economic expansion remains heavily dependent on the security situation.
GDP growth is expected to recover only modestly as the oil fund is nearly depleted, and ongoing political uncertainty weighs on the economic performance.
Economic growth in Eastern Europe is projected to remain solid this year, despite losing steam mainly because of poor growth prospects for Turkey.
Economic growth in Romania is expected to slow down to around 3-3.1% this year, and to sink below 3% in 2020
Real GDP growth in Slovakia is forecast to remain strong – 3.3% – this year and to slow slightly down to 3.2% in 2020
Economic expansion in the Czech Republic is forecast to remain positive over the coming months, with an average growth rate of about 3% this year.
Real GDP growth in Poland is forecast to reach 4.4% this year, slowing down to 3.6% in 2020.
Financial conditions in Turkey will be tighter in the coming months.
Economic expansion in Bulgaria is expected to lose some momentum in 2019, but should remain strong at above 3%, spurred by robust household spending, strong wage growth and an improving labour market
Economic growth in Hungary gained momentum recently, with real GDP gains expected to reach 4.4% this year.
Iran continues to demonstrate economic resilience but prospects for integration into the world economy remain far off.
Argentina has introduced currency controls to stabilise peso in the run-up to elections.
The amount of suppliers facing insolvency will increase further in the coming 2-3 years, as many will find it hard to adapt to changing market conditions.
Many German Tier 2 suppliers face the issue that their products are easily substitutable, while their solvency and equity position is generally weak.
Any imposition of import tariffs on cars/car parts would severely impact suppliers in the Tier 2 segment where many businesses already show thin margins.
Small basic component parts producers often suffer from poor equity, while at the same time they face increasing difficulties obtaining bank finance.
While the automotive insolvency level has been low compared to other industries in the past, an increase of up to 3% is expected in the coming 12 months.
Suppliers active in the combustion engine parts and car metals segments are severely affected by deteriorating demand and a high level of competition.
US tariffs could severely impact Japanese suppliers of low value added/basic car parts, as OEMs could replace their products with tariff-free items.
Local-owned Tier 2 suppliers remain susceptible to commodity price changes and exchange rate volatility, with limited options to pass on higher prices.
Higher costs, reduced orders, price pressure and changes in the type of products demanded could put the finances of many smaller suppliers under stress.
Insolvencies are expected to increase by about 3% in the coming 12 months, mainly affecting car dealers, car part distributors and Tier 2 suppliers.
Larger suppliers could seize the opportunity of buying distressed smaller players in order to expand market share and bargaining power against OEMs.