Survey respondents in China expect trade credit risk to increase over the coming months. Find out more about their business challenges going forward.
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The herculean task of restructuring Argentina's debt is underway but the risk of a disorderly default remains high.
Despite increasing clouds on the horizon, there remain several bright spots for export opportunities in emerging markets.
US economic growth started to slow down last year, with GDP expected to expand 2.3% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020.
Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the the leftist Morena party governs with a strong political mandate, as a Morena-led coalition has a majority in both houses of Congress.
As in 2019, Canada´s GDP growth is expected to remain below its long-term trend in 2020 due to sluggish domestic demand and lower export growth.
A hard Brexit and an escalation of EU-US trade disputes are downside risks for export-dependent food companies in the olives/olive oil and meat segments.
In the food retail sector smaller and independent businesses are struggling to remain profitable due to fierce competition and high price pressure.
Food sales growth continues, and the economic impact of the USMCA agreement on consumers and food supply chains is expected to be relatively small.
Despite efforts of food exporters to diversify shipments away from Britain a hard Brexit remains a major threat, potentially leading to more insolvencies.
In the Belgian food retail segment a comprehensive price war cannot be ruled out for the future, potentially forcing many businesses out of the market.
The ongoing drought has put additional pressure on margins industrywide due to higher input costs, and many businesses are struggling to break-even.
Larger players continue to push the supply chain on price and longer payment terms, adding cash flow challenges to mainly smaller food businesses.
While businesses´ profits are still stable and financials mainly solid, environmental issues pose a potential major challenge for agriculture and food.
The ongoing concentration process in the domestic market will increasingly put small retailers with a poor capacity to generate cash flow under pressure.
Insolvencies are expected to increase by about 1%-2% in 2020, mainly in the troubled meat segment and the beverages and fruit & vegetables subsectors.
A modest margin rebound, but commodity prices, price wars between retailers, changing consumer habits and difficulties in staff recruitment remain issues.
While several Brexit postponenements have provided food exporters with sufficient time to adapt, small retailers suffer from market price pressure.
Domestic metals and steel demand is increasingly affected by subdued investment in the construction sector and a marked demand slowdown from automotive.
Many businesses suffer from decreasing demand from key buyer sectors, high commodity prices, overcapacity, strong competition, and low profitability.
A modest increase in payment delays cannot be ruled out in the coming 12 months, but no substantial insolvency increase is expected for the industry.
The number of protracted payments and insolvencies was high in 2019, and is expected to increase further in 2020, mainly affecting private-owned producers.
Payment delays and business failures are expected to increase modestly in the coming twelve months, especially in the metal manufacturing segment.
For many businesses both demand and profit margins are expected to deteriorate further, with a moderate rebound expected in H2 of 2020 at the earliest.
The sector benefits from the lift of US import tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium, with profit margins of steel businesses expected to improve again.
Demand for metals and steel is currently impacted by the slowdown in demand from automotive and reduced investment from other manufacturing industries.
Due to a high level of non-performing assets in the sector banks are now unwilling to provide credit to the industry, causing additional liquidity issues.
Lower demand coupled with decreasing sales prices and higher prices for iron ore have led to deteriorating margins of steel producers and distributors.
Competitive price pressure has led to deteriorationg profit margins for steel producers as well as steel and metals distributors over the past 12 months.
The global economy is losing steam in 2019 and 2020. As the trade war accelerates this, consumer resilience will help avoid recession.
Regaining investors’ trust will be key to Fernández’s success in reinvigorating the Argentinian economy, but it is not the only thing.
Cyprus's economy is on solid ground but crisis legacies persist.
Ireland’s highly open economy is cooling off and demand in export markets is set to remain weak while the domestic economy faces increasing capacity constraints and lower government spending.
The UK is facing the highest increase in insolvencies in 2019 and 2020 in Western Europe.
In Italy, business insolvencies are expected to increase in 2019, by about 4%. This is due to economic stagnation, increased political uncertainty and tighter credit conditions.
Economic growth in Germany is expected to cool to 0.6% in 2019 down from 1.6% one year ago.
GDP growth in the Netherlands is expected to slow to 1.7% in 2019. After several years of sharp decreases in insolvencies, this year is likely to mark a turning point.
As economic growth decelerates, and the manufacturing sector struggles amid lower global trade, Western Europe expects to close the year with a 2.7% increase in insolvencies.
Insolvencies are rising, and structural weaknesses and the negative impact of sanctions on productivity and investment weigh on the economic expansion.
Due to the recent economic downturn the credit risk situation of some major industries has deteriorated, and insolvencies are expected to increase.
Worries over the impact of adverse external factors like US import tariffs and the Brexit decision on Polish export and investment growth remain.
In 2020 household consumption is expected to accelerate, sustained by further decreasing unemployment, low inflation, and a minimum wage increase.
The economy is highly integrated into international value chains, making it vulnerable to major foreign trade losses, especially in the automotive sector.
The forint remains vulnerable to international investors’ sentiment due to the elevated external and public debt levels and institutional issues.
As the economy is reliant on automotive-related exports to the Eurozone, especially to Germany, it is vulnerable to adverse developments in the industry.
The currency is subject to some volatility, and the country is vulnerable to capital outflows should there be adverse internal or external developments.
Political instability remains an issue for the long-term economic growth prospects, while corruption and red tape still hamper the business environment.
Despite a modest economic rebound the business performance and credit risk situation of several industries remains strained, especially in Dubai.
Beside deterioration of payment behaviour in the private sector, the number of payment delays in larger projects dependent on government funding is still high.
In 2019 and 2020 growth is expected to exceed 5%, supported by exchange rate liberalization, interest rate normalisation and increasing tourist arrivals.
The economy is currently forecast to expand by about 3.5% in 2020, however, this depends on decent performance in agriculture, tourism, and exports.