Survey respondents in China expect trade credit risk to increase over the coming months. Find out more about their business challenges going forward.
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China´s economic growth is forecast to slow down to 6% while downside risks have increased and business insolvencies will increase further in 2019
India´s economic outlook for 2019 and 2020 remains robust with about 7% growth, but a weak banking sector and high corporate indebtedness are concerns.
Indonesia´s short-term economic prospects are generally positive, but it remains vulnerable to sharply decreasing capital flows to emerging markets.
Japan´s export growth will slow down due to lower global trade expansion, but domestic demand will underpin the economic expansion of about 1% in 2019.
The export sector increasingly benefits from relocation of export-oriented industries away from China, due to Vietnam’s relatively low production costs.
Private consumption and public infrastructure investments sustain Thailand´s economic growth in 2019 and 2020, but high household debt remains an issue.
Economic growth is expected to slow down somewhat in 2019 and 2020, mainly due to lower export growth and the cooling down of the Chinese economic cycle.
Due to its high dependency on international trade, Singapore is highly susceptible to global protectionism and a hard landing of the Chinese economy.
Major infrastructure investment is necessary in order to increase private investments and to safeguard high economic growth rates in the long term.
Due to its high dependency on international trade, South Korea is highly susceptible to global protectionism and a hard landing of the Chinese economy.
Taiwan´s economic expansion is likely to moderate in 2019 and in 2020, as both global trade growth and mainland China´s import demand have cooled down.
After nearly a decade of annual improvements, 2019 is expected to mark the first year of insolvency growth since the crisis.
As many building materials are imported from the EU tariffs or limits on quantities imported after Brexit could lead to higher costs and material shortage.
The construction materials subsector clearly benefits from increased building material prices, and elevated costs are expected to persist throughout 2019.
The payment duration in the industry has increased to 70 days on average, and the payment experience over the past two years has been rather bad.
Many smaller construction companies have weak equity ratios and limited financial scope, which makes them vulnerable to payment delays and defaults.
Competition in the Swedish construction sector is high and consolidation is ongoing, with financially stronger groups buying financially weaker peers.
The insolvency level is high compared to other industries, and after increasing in 2018 business failures are expected rise further in H1 of 2019.
Payment behaviour in the construction industry slowly deteriorated in 2017 and 2018, and this negative trend is expected to continue in the coming months.
The overall indebtedness of many Belgian construction businesses is still high, while banks remain rather unwilling to provide credit to the industry.
Besides the low spending capacity, ongoing tight lending conditions set by banks remain one of the main reasons for the subdued sector performance.
Payments in the Australian construction sector take 30-60 days on average, and the level of protracted payments and insolvencies was high in 2018.
Late payments by mainly larger companies continue to negatively affect the working capital management of many smaller businesses in all segments.
Mid-sized businesses are facing profitability issues due to higher labour costs triggered by shortage of qualified staff and increased commodity prices.
Despite increasing clouds on the horizon, there remain several bright spots for export opportunities in emerging markets.
The economic impact of USMCA on Mexican-US trade is likely to be limited, as it is effectively a small modification of the pre-existing NAFTA agreement.
Trade policy uncertainty is one of the top risks to US businesses and consumers in 2019 that may bring the next downturn on more quickly than expected.
Despite a forecast growth slowdown in 2019 the economy should still experience positive momentum, with low unemployment and manageable inflation.
Some larger players continue to push the supply chain on price and longer payment terms, adding cash flow challenges to mainly smaller food businesses.
Many food producers and processors struggle to pass on higher input prices, which is hampered by the high concentration and market power of retailers.
As the UK is a major Danish export market, a hard Brexit could trigger a significant decrease in Danish export of food and agricultural products.
Despite efforts of food exporters to diversify shipments away from Britain, a hard Brexit remains a major challenge, also for shipments to mainland Europe.
Growth is set to continue, but the strong export orientation makes many food businesses susceptible to trade disputes and price/currency fluctuations.
Many meat processors and producers suffer from higher procurement prices, while their ability to pass on those increases to retailers is limited.
Even the biggest food retailers are small compared to other major international players, and e-commerce is increasingly challenging traditional businesses.
The new Mexican government could launch policies in order to increase domestic production and put emphasis on domestic agricultural support programmes.
Higher input costs have increased the pressure on margins in recent years, with a recent draught in Australia having and additional negative impact.
The number of protracted payments in the sector is rather high as larger businesses use their leverage against suppliers by demanding long payment terms.
The UK leaving the EU without a deal would be a major disruption, causing business insolvencies to be higher in the UK and EU27.
The USMCA has finally been signed on November 30, easing short-term uncertainty surrounding North American trade.
The main potential downside risk for the industry is a deterioration in orders from main buyer industries, especially from the automotive sector.
Both payment delays and insolvencies could increase in 2019, especially if price and margin pressures rise and activity in the construction sector slows.
Competitiveness of the steel and metals industry remains negatively impacted by power costs, which are about 30%-50% higher than in France or Germany.
Despite ongoing price pressure the general outlook for the Dutch steel/metals sector is positive, and the impact of the US import tariffs is very limited.
Payment delays or rescheduling schemes are currently on an upward trend, as producers are facing cash pressure due to heavier working capital requirements.
Higher margin pressure as demand from the automotive sector is expected to decrease in the coming months, while demand from construction remains sluggish.
The number and amount of protracted payments and insolvencies remains high, and many private-owned steel and metals producers face serious troubles.
Payment delays and insolvencies will probably increase until the new USMCA trade agreement is ratified and the US import tariff issue is resolved.
Despite the comprehensive safeguarding measures imposed by the EU, the risk of declining steel prices as a result of additional steel inflow remains.
EU safeguarding measures against steel imports could become an issue if the EU and the UK fail to reach an agreement on the post Brexit trade relationship.