Automotive Industry Trends May 2024


  • 巴西,
  • 加拿大,
  • 中国,
  • 捷克,
  • 法国,
  • 德国,
  • 印度,
  • 印尼,
  • 意大利,
  • 日本,
  • 墨西哥,
  • 荷兰,
  • 新加坡,
  • 韩国,
  • 西班牙,
  • 瑞典,
  • 美国,
  • 英国,
  • 越南
  • 自动化/交通


Car sales have cooled down after double digit growth in 2023

A marked slowdown in global car production  in 2024 and 2025

  • We expect global automotive output to slow down to 0.8% this year, after an 11% increase in 2023. Main reason are tight credit conditions in Western countries and a subdued Chinese economy.
  • The US has decided to impose high tariffs on Chinese EV imports.
  • Emerging Asian markets will lead global car production growth in the long-term.

US automotive: High interest rates weigh on demand

  • US car sales to slow down to 2.5% in 2024 and 2025 after growing 14.6% in 2023.
  • Electric vehicle (EV) sales are below expectations as higher costs remain a barrier, but the long-term outlook is good.

Fierce competition in the Chinese electric vehicles market

  • Lower consumer confidence weighs on domestic car sales, but local electric vehicle brands expand their market share.
  •  However, EV producers´ margins suffer from a price war. Smaller EV businesses could quickly fail without continuous capital flow. 

Higher credit risk for smaller automotive suppliers in Europe

  • We expect insolvencies and payment defaults among suppliers to increase this year, as car sales shrink, and discounts weigh on margins.
  • Competitive pressure from Chinese electric vehicle producers is a major challenge for European firms. Following the US, the EU could impose punitive tariffs on Chinese EV car imports soon.

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