Global Economic Outlook - June 2020

经济概览

  • 阿尔及利亚,
  • 安哥拉,
  • 阿根廷,
  • 澳大利亚,
  • 奥地利,
  • 孟加拉国,
  • 比利时,
  • 巴西,
  • 保加利亚,
  • 加拿大,
  • 智利,
  • 中国,
  • 哥伦比亚,
  • 哥斯达黎加,
  • 克罗地亚,
  • 塞浦路斯,
  • 捷克,
  • 丹麦,
  • 埃及,
  • 爱沙尼亚,
  • 芬兰,
  • 法国,
  • 德国,
  • 希腊,
  • 香港,
  • 匈牙利,
  • 冰岛,
  • 印度,
  • 印尼,
  • 伊朗,
  • 爱尔兰,
  • 意大利,
  • 日本,
  • 约旦,
  • 肯尼亚,
  • 科威特,
  • 拉脱维亚,
  • 立陶宛,
  • 卢森堡,
  • 马来西亚,
  • 墨西哥,
  • 摩洛哥,
  • 荷兰,
  • 新西兰,
  • 挪威,
  • 巴拿马,
  • 秘鲁,
  • 菲律宾,
  • 波兰,
  • 葡萄牙,
  • 罗马尼亚,
  • 俄罗斯,
  • 沙特阿拉伯,
  • 新加坡,
  • 斯洛伐克,
  • 斯洛文尼亚,
  • 南非,
  • 韩国,
  • 西班牙,
  • 瑞典,
  • 瑞士,
  • 台湾,
  • 坦桑尼亚,
  • 泰国,
  • 突尼斯,
  • 土耳其,
  • 阿拉伯联合酋长国,
  • 美国,
  • 英国,
  • 越南
  • 一般经济

2020年06月25日

The rapid spread of Covid-19 across the globe is taking a heavy economic toll on both advanced and emerging economies. Lockdowns reduce consumption opportunities and create supply-side shocks.

The recession the global economy is facing in 2020, is deeper than what occurred during the 2008/2009 financial crisis. As such, the forecast of a robust V-shaped recovery in 2021 is surrounded by high level of uncertainty.

Key points

  • We forecast a 5.1% contraction in 2020 global, followed by a robust 6.5% recovery in 2021. The recovery depends on the development and administration of a vaccine or, alternatively, a state of the world in which the effect of social distancing on economic activities is largely overcome.
  • Trade growth, already ailing before Covid-19, has nose-dived owing to the supply and demand side pressures created by the virus. In 2020, we expect global trade to shrink by about 15%.
  • All advanced markets are affected to a greater or lesser degree by the Covid-19 pandemic. As a group, advanced economies face a 6.5% GDP contraction in 2020, with a 5.9% recovery anticipated in 2021.
  • In the Eurozone, the worst of the pandemic seems to be over, but the region is still heading for a historic recession in 2020. Sizable fiscal packages have been deployed to soften the blow.
  • In the US, the negative effects of the trade war with China will be compounded by the negative effects the lockdown. The economic decline is having a huge impact on employment, with the unemployment rate shooting up to unprecedented levels.
  • Japan is heading for a strong contraction in 2020, with limited monetary policy space to combat the recession. Tourism revenues have plummeted.
  • The Covid-19 virus is affecting many emerging market economies. All major emerging economies – except for China – will face a recession in 2020. There are large differences between countries in regards to where they are on the infections curve, how effective policy measures are, and to the degree they are affected by lower commodity prices.

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