Country report Ireland 2019

国家报告

  • 爱尔兰
  • 一般经济

2019年05月28日

The Irish economy is expected to grow by about 2.5% in 2019, but remains exposed to ongoing economic uncertainties stemming from the Brexit decision.

 

irland
ireland

Decrease in insolvencies expected to end in 2019

After six years of increases, Irish business insolvencies have, since 2013, recorded annual declines, decreasing 13% in 2018. However, this positive trend is expected to end in 2019, with insolvencies forecast to increase slightly.

This increase is mainly due to elevated uncertainty around Brexit, with the manufacturing and food sectors most exposed due to their high dependency on exports to the United Kingdom. Both could suffer from exchange rate volatility and potential cross-border trade disruptions.

 

ireland

The Brexit decision casts its shadow

The Irish economy grew robustly in 2018, based on export growth and solid domestic demand. In 2019 and 2020 GDP expansion is expected to slow down as export growth decelerates. Domestic demand is forecast to remain robust, driven by rising employment and wage growth. The housing market will remain buoyant, with construction activity increasing further. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2% in 2019, mainly driven by wage growth.  

Due to past fiscal austerity, the budget deficit has diminished and public debt, while still high, has decreased.

Economic prospects are more uncertain than in the past. As the UK market accounts for about 15% of Irish goods and 20% of services exports, a potential economic downturn in the UK and the outcome of the on-going EU-UK negotiations (towards a “soft leave” or “hard leave”) could affect Ireland´s economic performance.

Another issue is the high indebtedness of some households and businesses, which makes them vulnerable to any future interest increases by the European Central Bank.

 

 

 

 

 

相关资料

免责声明

Each publication available on or from our websites, such as, but not limited to webpages, reports, articles, publications, tips and helpful content, trading briefs, infographics, videos (each a “Publication”) is provided for information purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation or advice as to particular transactions, investments or strategies in any way to any reader. Readers must make their own independent decisions, commercial or otherwise, regarding the information provided. While we have made every attempt to ensure that the information contained in any Publication has been obtained from reliable sources, Atradius is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results obtained from the use of this information. All information in any Publication is provided ’as is’, with no guarantee of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from its use, and without warranty of any kind, express or implied. In no event will Atradius, its related partnerships or corporations, or the partners, agents or employees thereof, be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information in any Publication, or for any loss of opportunity, loss of profit, loss of production, loss of business or indirect losses, special or similar damages of any kind, even if advised of the possibility of such losses or damages.