化学品行业趋势 - 日本 2022

市场监测

  • 日本
  • 化学/制药

2022年11月24日

盈利压力不大

 

日本化学品行业-信用风险评估

日本所有子行业化学品产量在2022年第二季度均出现下降,随后在第三季度再次反弹。短期前景乐观,增长率中等但稳定。由于之前肥皂和清洁剂需求积压,日本的国内家用化学品消费实现复苏(2022年增长3.7%)。与此同时,随着全球芯片短缺问题的缓解,作为主要客户的汽车行业需求在不断增长。

海外市场约占化学品销售额的50%,外部需求在第三季度再次上升。然而,发达经济体及中国的经济增长放缓,可能会抑制未来数月的出口。

日本化学品产量

虽然该行业并不过度依赖俄罗斯的石油和天然气供应,但能源价格的上涨仍然令人担忧。虽然日元的疲软促进了出口,但也导致能源和大宗商品的进口成本上升。企业很难将增长的能源和原材料成本完全转嫁给最终客户。因此,我们预计,化学品企业的利润率将在2022财年(2022年4月1日至2023年3月31日)出现萎缩。然而,得益于有利的市场环境,大部分公司在2021财年的盈利能力均有所增长。

日本化学品行业的平均付款期限为30-120天,过去两年的付款行为一直较好。过去几年,该行业的延迟付款和资不抵债数量较少,我们预计2023年不会出现明显恶化。由于日本化学品行业所有部门的盈利压力不大,银行愿意提供贷款,而且多数企业的杠杆率不高,所有,我们将其信用风险状况评估为“良好”。

从长远来看,日本国内的生产成本较高,中美两国具有低价竞争优势,其产能可能会受到抑制,尤其是基础化学品子行业。我们预计,该部门的企业将努力向价值链上游攀升,争取为汽车等主要买家行业制造低碳的专业化产品。

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